Global Portfolio Strategy Research
8 May 2023 “Objects in the mirror are not as bad as you thought they were” After several sub-par quarters and a period of aggressive estimate cuts, Q1 earnings reports have broadly beaten the reduced earnings forecasts. This has triggered…
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24 April 2023 Following the latest CPI and PPI data, it seems even more clear that inflation mostly peaked around June/July last year and has been easing since, particularly in the last six months. This note follows up on the…
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15 April 2023 We recently launched a new report designed to guide our institutional clients during earnings seasons. It is based around an “Earnings Screen Score” ranking methodology that draws on selected inputs from our long-standing MAER stock database to…
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28 February 2023 A bit of history Mill Street Research was founded around this time seven years ago, and the MAER stock selection model has been the anchor for Mill Street’s “bottom up” quantitative stock selection analysis since then. The…
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15 January 2023 Some of the common questions among fund managers who are looking at Mill Street’s stock selection and asset allocation tools are on the topic of whether using analyst estimate revisions metrics for stock return forecasting is useful:…
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16 December 2022 A key topic within the broader inflation debate is the influence of the biggest single component of the CPI: shelter. At about 33% of the current CPI weight, shelter (housing/rent) costs are clearly important, but measuring them…
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23 November 2022 The focus of the inflation headlines, and most of the comments from Fed officials, has been on the year-on-year reported inflation rate of the CPI (or PCE). However, the extremely volatile macro environment has produced far more…
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10 November 2022 UK stocks have been outperforming the global market recently, and our indicators remain supportive, particularly if value and commodity stocks remain in favor. After lagging for much of the last decade, UK stocks have been strongly outperforming…
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31 October 2022 A question we have heard several times from clients has been: when will equity analysts get as bearish as investors have been recently? Well, analysts may be getting closer to that point now, particularly for the large-cap…
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20 October 2022 The markets have remained focused on the Fed (and occasionally the Bank of England), and the Fed has kept its focus on the trailing reported inflation data (CPI, PCE, etc.) and on the labor market data (job…
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