19 May 2022 The level and growth rate of corporate earnings remain reasonably good – earnings are at record highs, and are expected to grow about 10% this year and next. However, analysts are no longer revising their earnings forecasts…
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12 May 2022 The latest CPI report yesterday showed prices in April still rising at a worrisome rate, led by recovery in service-related spending like airline fares. The monthly increases in the headline CPI and the core (excluding food and…
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5 May 2022 Yesterday’s Fed policy announcement was certainly the focus of attention, and monetary policy has been driving headlines and market action for much of the year. However, our view is that fiscal policy is likely the bigger policy…
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21 April 2022 Inflation remains a big topic among investors, and the charts below clearly show some of the reasons why, but there are also reasons to suspect inflation pressure could ease later this year. Inflation is high . ….
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14 April 2022 As Q1 earnings season gets under way, below we review the current consensus estimates for the US (S&P 500) and Europe (Stoxx 600). U.S. The table below shows the current bottom-up consensus estimates for the S&P 500…
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7 April 2022 While all markets have been volatile recently, the normally “safe” Treasury bond market has been especially volatile, and is giving mixed signals. This means that even in a generally “risk off” backdrop, the normally riskier stock market…
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31 March 2022 Our indicators of analyst earnings estimates revisions in the US highlight a key theme: revisions for large-cap (and mid-cap) stocks have held up much better recently than those of small-cap stocks. While the proportion of analysts raising…
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24 March 2022 Client Question: There is a possible world war going on along with a seemingly never-ending pandemic, inflation is at multi-decade highs, the Fed and other central banks are tightening monetary policy, and the world may lose access…
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10 March 2022 Commodity markets have become the center of global economic and financial market attention recently, showing unprecedented volatility. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, coming on top of the volatility caused by COVID and the subsequent policy responses, has highlighted…
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2 March 2022 While we hesitate to comment too much on the situation in Russia/Ukraine given how fast conditions are changing, many investors are naturally interested in the market impacts of the recent invasion and the resulting sanctions. The first…
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