Market & Economic Commentary

Index earnings expectations for US and Europe

14 April 2022 As Q1 earnings season gets under way, below we review the current consensus estimates for the US (S&P 500) and Europe (Stoxx 600). U.S. The table below shows the current bottom-up consensus estimates for the S&P 500…
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Bond market in turmoil as stocks outperform

7 April 2022 While all markets have been volatile recently, the normally “safe” Treasury bond market has been especially volatile, and is giving mixed signals. This means that even in a generally “risk off” backdrop, the normally riskier stock market…
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Why are you not more bearish?

24 March 2022 Client Question: There is a possible world war going on along with a seemingly never-ending pandemic, inflation is at multi-decade highs, the Fed and other central banks are tightening monetary policy, and the world may lose access…
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Market impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

2 March 2022 While we hesitate to comment too much on the situation in Russia/Ukraine given how fast conditions are changing, many investors are naturally interested in the market impacts of the recent invasion and the resulting sanctions. The first…
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Macro events overshadow a positive earnings season

24 February 2022 With macro events dominating the headlines (Ukraine, Fed, oil), along with a high-profile “blow up” or two (i.e., Meta, PayPal), it is perhaps not surprising that there has been less attention lately on the overall Q4 earnings…
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Shifting to neutral on equities

17 February 2022 Our intermediate-term (3-6 month) indicators have deteriorated enough recently to argue for shifting from overweight equities in our asset allocation framework to neutral. While stocks are still favored over bonds on a longer-term relative valuation basis, the…
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