Global Portfolio Strategy Research
12 July 2022 Markets remain volatile, but the narrative driving the volatility has been shifting recently, a topic we have written about and discussed with clients recently. For much of the year, the concern was that the economy was “too…
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30 June 2022 A growing concern among economists and investors is that retailers have been rebuilding inventories rapidly recently, potentially turning what had been partly empty shelves into excess supply. And indeed, the data on inventories held by various categories…
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22 June 2022 After nearly a decade of US equities mostly outperforming those in Europe, our indicators are finally more decisively aligned in favor of Europe now. Fundamental momentum has shifted to Europe now All of the indicators in the…
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16 June 2022 Last month we commented that while the CPI readings remain very high, there are signs of moderation in commodity prices. With commodity prices remaining center stage as a macro driver, we continue to closely watch the various…
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8 June 2022 Gasoline prices remain in the headlines, and leave an impression every time a driver fills their tank as prices hit new highs. Oil prices are a global issue, with OPEC and the US being the biggest…
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19 May 2022 The level and growth rate of corporate earnings remain reasonably good – earnings are at record highs, and are expected to grow about 10% this year and next. However, analysts are no longer revising their earnings forecasts…
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12 May 2022 The latest CPI report yesterday showed prices in April still rising at a worrisome rate, led by recovery in service-related spending like airline fares. The monthly increases in the headline CPI and the core (excluding food and…
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5 May 2022 Yesterday’s Fed policy announcement was certainly the focus of attention, and monetary policy has been driving headlines and market action for much of the year. However, our view is that fiscal policy is likely the bigger policy…
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21 April 2022 Inflation remains a big topic among investors, and the charts below clearly show some of the reasons why, but there are also reasons to suspect inflation pressure could ease later this year. Inflation is high . ….
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14 April 2022 As Q1 earnings season gets under way, below we review the current consensus estimates for the US (S&P 500) and Europe (Stoxx 600). U.S. The table below shows the current bottom-up consensus estimates for the S&P 500…
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