Market & Economic Commentary

Market volatility vs Style volatility

4 August 2021 Equity market volatility has been declining this year and has recently been below the long-run average. However, under the surface of the calm at the major index level, style rotation between Growth and Value has been extremely…
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Cyclical sectors still have the fundamental momentum

24 June 2021 One of the biggest questions we have been getting from clients is “is it time to rotate out of Cyclical/Value sectors toward Growth (or Defensive) sectors?”. Based on our measures of fundamental earnings momentum and macro views,…
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Sector Pair: Financials vs Health Care

17 June 2021 In recent months, two of our strongest US sector allocation views have been to overweight Financials and underweight Health Care. A key feature of our sector work is that we often look at sector indicators on a…
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Inflation trend is still low

9 June 2021 One of the biggest topics among investors recently has been inflation, particularly after the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports (reflecting April data) that showed big monthly jumps in headline inflation: 0.8%…
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Analysts raising estimates at a record pace, again

3 June 2021 While we have commented on the strength in US earnings estimate revisions activity recently, the latest readings warrant additional comment. Our data now show a new record (20-year+) high in the net proportion of analysts raising earnings…
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Commercial Real Estate finally on the rebound?

27 May 2021 Among the biggest losers from COVID-19 and the resulting work-from-home trends that followed was the commercial real estate industry. Office buildings and retail stores that had been mostly full in 2019 were suddenly empty, and the companies…
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Rotation, not risk-off

20 May 2021 In response to client questions, we update some indicators we discussed back in January to address the debate about whether recent market action is indicative of a defensive shift (potential equity market top) or a rotation within…
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Used cars in the headlights

13 May 2021 According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “the index for used cars and trucks rose 10.0 percent in April. This was the largest 1-month increase since the series began…
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