Market & Economic Commentary

CPI remains high, but commodity prices stabilizing

12 May 2022 The latest CPI report yesterday showed prices in April still rising at a worrisome rate, led by recovery in service-related spending like airline fares. The monthly increases in the headline CPI and the core (excluding food and…
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Fed coming late to tightening party

5 May 2022 Yesterday’s Fed policy announcement was certainly the focus of attention, and monetary policy has been driving headlines and market action for much of the year. However, our view is that fiscal policy is likely the bigger policy…
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Index earnings expectations for US and Europe

14 April 2022 As Q1 earnings season gets under way, below we review the current consensus estimates for the US (S&P 500) and Europe (Stoxx 600). U.S. The table below shows the current bottom-up consensus estimates for the S&P 500…
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Bond market in turmoil as stocks outperform

7 April 2022 While all markets have been volatile recently, the normally “safe” Treasury bond market has been especially volatile, and is giving mixed signals. This means that even in a generally “risk off” backdrop, the normally riskier stock market…
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Why are you not more bearish?

24 March 2022 Client Question: There is a possible world war going on along with a seemingly never-ending pandemic, inflation is at multi-decade highs, the Fed and other central banks are tightening monetary policy, and the world may lose access…
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Market impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

2 March 2022 While we hesitate to comment too much on the situation in Russia/Ukraine given how fast conditions are changing, many investors are naturally interested in the market impacts of the recent invasion and the resulting sanctions. The first…
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