Market & Economic Commentary

Analysts raising estimates at a record pace, again

3 June 2021 While we have commented on the strength in US earnings estimate revisions activity recently, the latest readings warrant additional comment. Our data now show a new record (20-year+) high in the net proportion of analysts raising earnings…
Read more

Commercial Real Estate finally on the rebound?

27 May 2021 Among the biggest losers from COVID-19 and the resulting work-from-home trends that followed was the commercial real estate industry. Office buildings and retail stores that had been mostly full in 2019 were suddenly empty, and the companies…
Read more

Rotation, not risk-off

20 May 2021 In response to client questions, we update some indicators we discussed back in January to address the debate about whether recent market action is indicative of a defensive shift (potential equity market top) or a rotation within…
Read more

Used cars in the headlights

13 May 2021 According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “the index for used cars and trucks rose 10.0 percent in April. This was the largest 1-month increase since the series began…
Read more

Cyclical sectors still dominating globally on earnings trends

As we discussed in our last commentary, analysts continue to raise earnings estimates broadly as companies keep beating consensus expectations. Expectations of additional fiscal spending and ongoing easy monetary policy along with progress toward re-opening of the economy are key…
Read more

Analysts still can’t keep up with surging earnings

Earnings reports for Q1 are coming in very hot once again, even after several consecutive quarters of beating consensus expectations. Analysts seem to still be struggling to keep up with the strength in US earnings, and continue to raise their…
Read more

Labor market improving but still shows plenty of slack

In the longer-run, a key measure of inflation pressure is the amount of labor market slack (unemployed or underemployed people), which heavily influences the ability of workers to demand higher wages. The standard reported unemployment rate data (i.e., the U-3…
Read more