Market & Economic Commentary

Putting the Fed’s balance sheet in perspective

Along with fiscal stimulus, the aggressive support of financial markets by the Federal Reserve (and other central banks) has been a key to the gains in risk assets since April. In our view, stock and bond prices would not be…
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Does The NASDAQ-100 Correction Have Further To Go?

The NASDAQ-100 Index (often known by its ticker symbol, NDX), home to many of the mega-cap Tech-related Growth stocks that have dominated the US stock market this year, has seen some corrective action this month. A common question we hear…
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Growth leadership easing as rotation increases

One of the most notable market trends in recent weeks has been the corrective action in the formerly high-flying US large-cap Growth stocks. The dominant Tech-oriented companies that have been responsible for much of the gains in US large-cap indices…
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Is the rebound in earnings estimate revisions peaking?

Our measures of aggregated earnings estimate revisions trends have shown some of their most dramatic movements on record this year, and now may be looking extended. After reaching historically extreme negative readings in April/May amid the initial COVID-19 lockdowns, earnings…
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Unemployment is still a huge issue

The latest weekly report on unemployment claims was released yesterday and provoked mixed responses depending on how the data was (or was not) analyzed. While unemployment claims data is not a perfect measure of the national job market, it is…
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The S&P 500 is top-heavy, but so are fundamentals

There has been much discussion about the increasing concentration of the market cap weighted indices in the US, with the S&P 500 now showing some of the highest levels of concentration among the largest constituents in history. The top 20…
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