Fed concerns easing despite recent big rate hikes

Yesterday’s decision by the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 75 basis points for a second consecutive time was historic, as it marks the most aggressive back-to-back rate hikes (150 basis points in less than two months) since the early 1980s, before the Fed was formally targeting the fed funds rate as its key policy focus.

The Fed’s statement and press conference yesterday clearly indicated that the Fed is not done with raising rates yet, but gave some of the first indications that they are acknowledging the signs of slowing economic growth and that the lagged effects of the rate hikes to date have not been fully felt yet. Markets reacted favorably to the news (75bps was well anticipated before the meeting), as it brings the potential for smaller rate hikes and the eventual end of the rate hike cycle closer.

Inflation expectations: markets showing more worry now, less worry later

Inflation remains a hot topic among investors, policy makers, and voters. While there is not a great deal that policy makers (fiscal or monetary) can do in the short term to control inflation (today’s announcements of coordinated releases from strategic oil reserves are mostly a signaling action), there are steps that can be taken on a longer horizon. Monetary policy has historically been the primary lever used to try to manage inflation, though it has arguably been less effective in recent years as it has run into the “zero lower bound” (ZLB) with short-term interest rates. Fiscal policy is likely a more potent lever but historically has not been used as such.