16 September 2021 For some time we have noted that traditional Cyclical and Value sectors have had much stronger earnings estimate revisions activity (“fundamental momentum”) than Growth or Defensive sectors. That has been changing recently as cyclical sector estimates are…
Read more
9 September 2021 A frequent question lately has been: are we currently in, or about to enter, a period of “stagflation” like the late 1960s and 1970s as a result of COVID and policy responses? Our short answer is no:…
Read more
2 September 2021 In our regional allocation work, we have been underweight in Emerging Markets relative to developed markets since May, and remain so currently. A key reason for our continued underweight stance is that the relative fundamental momentum for…
Read more
18 August 2021 Major equity indices globally have been remarkably stable in recent months, pushing realized volatility readings to very low levels. Our own research along with that of many others has shown that volatility in equities tends to be…
Read more
4 August 2021 Equity market volatility has been declining this year and has recently been below the long-run average. However, under the surface of the calm at the major index level, style rotation between Growth and Value has been extremely…
Read more
21 July 2021 We have heard a number of client questions about the recent rebound in Growth stocks relative to Value (or Cyclical) stocks, so here we review some of the recent price action and one of the key cross-asset…
Read more
8 July 2021 As we have discussed for some time now, equity analysts are raising their forecasts for corporate earnings more broadly and by larger amounts than at any previous time in our 20-year data history. However, while analysts are…
Read more
24 June 2021 One of the biggest questions we have been getting from clients is “is it time to rotate out of Cyclical/Value sectors toward Growth (or Defensive) sectors?”. Based on our measures of fundamental earnings momentum and macro views,…
Read more
17 June 2021 In recent months, two of our strongest US sector allocation views have been to overweight Financials and underweight Health Care. A key feature of our sector work is that we often look at sector indicators on a…
Read more
9 June 2021 One of the biggest topics among investors recently has been inflation, particularly after the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports (reflecting April data) that showed big monthly jumps in headline inflation: 0.8%…
Read more