Market & Economic Commentary

Are we fighting the Fed now?

17 August 2022 The stock market has rallied sharply since mid-July, while long-term bond yields have been stable to lower. Even the mighty US dollar has paused a bit in its uptrend. But inflation remains high (though likely peaking) and…
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Large vs Small Caps: Fundamentals vs Risk

4 August 2022 One of the asset allocation decisions we research is whether to favor large-caps or small-caps within an equity portfolio. Currently, we see a stark divergence in the broad categories of indicators: the fundamentals of earnings estimates and…
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Fed concerns easing despite recent big rate hikes

28 July 2022 Yesterday’s decision by the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 75 basis points for a second consecutive time was historic, as it marks the most aggressive back-to-back rate hikes (150 basis points in less than two months)…
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Is the Fed closer to its goals than we think?

12 July 2022 Markets remain volatile, but the narrative driving the volatility has been shifting recently, a topic we have written about and discussed with clients recently. For much of the year, the concern was that the economy was “too…
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Store shelves are filling again, just not car lots

30 June 2022 A growing concern among economists and investors is that retailers have been rebuilding inventories rapidly recently, potentially turning what had been partly empty shelves into excess supply. And indeed, the data on inventories held by various categories…
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Rare event: Europe looking better than the US

22 June 2022 After nearly a decade of US equities mostly outperforming those in Europe, our indicators are finally more decisively aligned in favor of Europe now. Fundamental momentum has shifted to Europe now All of the indicators in the…
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Commodity prices diverging: energy vs the rest

16 June 2022 Last month we commented that while the CPI readings remain very high, there are signs of moderation in commodity prices. With commodity prices remaining center stage as a macro driver, we continue to closely watch the various…
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A closer look at gasoline and oil prices

8 June 2022 Gasoline prices remain in the headlines, and leave an impression every time a driver fills their tank as prices hit new highs.   Oil prices are a global issue, with OPEC and the US being the biggest…
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