Market & Economic Commentary

Time to take profits in Financials?

14 October 2021 As Q3 earnings season gets underway, stocks in the Financials sector are in focus as they are typically among the first to report earnings. While history indicates companies are on average likely to beat Q3 estimates, our…
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Big moves in energy markets

7 October 2021 Volatility in the crude oil and natural gas markets has been a big topic among investors and policy makers recently. Limited supplies and higher demand are pushing prices higher, and stock prices in the Energy sector are…
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Fed dodging another taper tantrum

23 September 2021 The primary news from the Fed meeting yesterday was to clarify the likely timing of reducing and then ending the current QE (quantitative easing, or bond buying) program. Fed Chair Powell indicated that (barring any big surprises)…
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Fundamental momentum slowing for Cyclical sectors

16 September 2021 For some time we have noted that traditional Cyclical and Value sectors have had much stronger earnings estimate revisions activity (“fundamental momentum”) than Growth or Defensive sectors. That has been changing recently as cyclical sector estimates are…
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Emerging Markets fundamental momentum still very weak

2 September 2021 In our regional allocation work, we have been underweight in Emerging Markets relative to developed markets since May, and remain so currently. A key reason for our continued underweight stance is that the relative fundamental momentum for…
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Market volatility vs Style volatility

4 August 2021 Equity market volatility has been declining this year and has recently been below the long-run average. However, under the surface of the calm at the major index level, style rotation between Growth and Value has been extremely…
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