23 November 2022 The focus of the inflation headlines, and most of the comments from Fed officials, has been on the year-on-year reported inflation rate of the CPI (or PCE). However, the extremely volatile macro environment has produced far more…
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10 November 2022 UK stocks have been outperforming the global market recently, and our indicators remain supportive, particularly if value and commodity stocks remain in favor. After lagging for much of the last decade, UK stocks have been strongly outperforming…
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31 October 2022 A question we have heard several times from clients has been: when will equity analysts get as bearish as investors have been recently? Well, analysts may be getting closer to that point now, particularly for the large-cap…
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20 October 2022 The markets have remained focused on the Fed (and occasionally the Bank of England), and the Fed has kept its focus on the trailing reported inflation data (CPI, PCE, etc.) and on the labor market data (job…
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6 October 2022 Short-term movements in stocks, bonds, and currencies continue to be driven primarily by changes in investor perceptions about the Fed’s likely course of action over the next 6-12 months. In response to client questions, the following are…
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28 September 2022 The August CPI report released earlier this month was significantly worse than expected, and data since then has not changed the broader view of inflation for the Fed. Along with continued hawkish public commentary from Fed officials,…
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15 September 2022 The Fed is raising rates as fast as it can, and the Treasury yield curve is flat or inverted. Is this a bad scenario for US banks? Not right now, since the rates banks pay on deposits…
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31 August 2022 China’s stock market (based on the MSCI China Index, which includes local Chinese listings and listings in Hong Kong) has lagged badly, whether compared to rest of the Emerging Market universe or to the developed market universe….
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17 August 2022 The stock market has rallied sharply since mid-July, while long-term bond yields have been stable to lower. Even the mighty US dollar has paused a bit in its uptrend. But inflation remains high (though likely peaking) and…
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4 August 2022 One of the asset allocation decisions we research is whether to favor large-caps or small-caps within an equity portfolio. Currently, we see a stark divergence in the broad categories of indicators: the fundamentals of earnings estimates and…
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