Moderate correction provoked a sharp drop in bullishness

The S&P 500 recently had its biggest pullback since March, though only about 5% from its early September all-time high and thus quite mild in the context of normal market volatility historically. The Russell 2000 has not hit a new high since mid-March but was also only about 5% off that peak, having been mostly range-bound since then. Major indices have since recovered much of those declines in the last week and are again approaching their highs.

Reviewing current stock vs bond sentiment

Despite what you might hear or read some places, investor surveys do not show an extreme level of optimism toward US stocks. Bullishness on stocks has in fact declined somewhat recently and is not far from long-term average readings.

Sentiment toward bonds, by contrast, has moved quite sharply and is now approaching extreme bearishness by the standards of recent years. This is not too surprising, given that long-term Treasury bond yields have recently risen to their highest levels since COVID hit early last year. The result has been that investors in long-term (20+ year) Treasury bonds have lost about 13% since the end of November and about 18% since the end of July.