In the longer-run, a key measure of inflation pressure is the amount of labor market slack (unemployed or underemployed people), which heavily influences the ability of workers to demand higher wages.
The standard reported unemployment rate data (i.e., the U-3 measure in the US) is useful in measuring labor market slack, but has limitations due (in part) to its definitions of “unemployed” and the “labor force” in the calculation: “unemployed” people as a percentage of the “labor force”. That is, to be counted as “unemployed”, a working-age person must be considered actively looking for a job (when asked if they have sought employment in the last four weeks in the monthly household surveys done by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS). If they are not currently seeking employment for any reason, they are “not in the labor force” and thus do not count in the standard unemployment rate, even if they consider themselves unemployed.
The US labor market is showing mixed signals depending on the data and time period used. Here we review some data that can help identify the divergences and put current conditions in context.
There has been much discussion about the “K-shaped” recovery in the economy following the shock of the initial lockdowns in the second quarter of this year. The “K” is meant to represent a sharp divergence between industries and workers who have been unaffected by or benefited from recent conditions (the top of the “K”), and those who have been hurt (the bottom of the “K”).