A key differentiating element of Mill Street’s research is the intersection of “top-down” and “bottom-up” inputs to asset allocation decisions. That is, a lot of strategists and researchers focus mostly on top-down indicators like...

One of the big questions every investor has to wrestle with in some way or another is whether their own expectations differ meaningfully from what the “market” (investors in aggregate) expect. Only when results...

Based on commentary I hear and read, and questions I get asked, I thought it might be helpful to address two common “myths”, i.e., stylized assumptions or worries about the current US market and...

Staying in line with the trend in markets has long been shown to be useful for allocation and risk control, which is why we include trend-oriented indicators in the Global Equity Risk Model we...

A key baseline assumption of many economists and central bankers is that higher interest rates slow the economy while lower interest rates stimulate it.  Another widely held assumption is that inflation is mostly caused...

If you were wondering what a “soft landing” looks like, current US economic data is about as close as you are likely to see. The big jump in inflation in 2021-22 was primarily driven...