Market & Economic Commentary

Why are you not more bearish?

24 March 2022 Client Question: There is a possible world war going on along with a seemingly never-ending pandemic, inflation is at multi-decade highs, the Fed and other central banks are tightening monetary policy, and the world may lose access…
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Market impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

2 March 2022 While we hesitate to comment too much on the situation in Russia/Ukraine given how fast conditions are changing, many investors are naturally interested in the market impacts of the recent invasion and the resulting sanctions. The first…
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Macro events overshadow a positive earnings season

24 February 2022 With macro events dominating the headlines (Ukraine, Fed, oil), along with a high-profile “blow up” or two (i.e., Meta, PayPal), it is perhaps not surprising that there has been less attention lately on the overall Q4 earnings…
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Shifting to neutral on equities

17 February 2022 Our intermediate-term (3-6 month) indicators have deteriorated enough recently to argue for shifting from overweight equities in our asset allocation framework to neutral. While stocks are still favored over bonds on a longer-term relative valuation basis, the…
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Stay with large-caps as volatility picks up

3 February 2022 In our view, equity markets have been shifting toward a backdrop of higher volatility and thus more modest gains relative to the last 18 months. After an all-time high in early January, the S&P 500 recently endured…
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Volatility returns as investors adjust to policy outlook

26 January 2022 Equities, and asset prices in general, have seen a return of volatility during January, following over a year of very subdued volatility and strong returns. Why, especially in a historically favorable seasonal period? In our view, markets…
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