Market & Economic Commentary

Watching the Fed watching the data

20 October 2022 The markets have remained focused on the Fed (and occasionally the Bank of England), and the Fed has kept its focus on the trailing reported inflation data (CPI, PCE, etc.) and on the labor market data (job…
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All eyes still on the Fed

6 October 2022 Short-term movements in stocks, bonds, and currencies continue to be driven primarily by changes in investor perceptions about the Fed’s likely course of action over the next 6-12 months. In response to client questions, the following are…
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China remains a drag on Emerging Markets and the world

31 August 2022 China’s stock market (based on the MSCI China Index, which includes local Chinese listings and listings in Hong Kong) has lagged badly, whether compared to rest of the Emerging Market universe or to the developed market universe….
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Are we fighting the Fed now?

17 August 2022 The stock market has rallied sharply since mid-July, while long-term bond yields have been stable to lower. Even the mighty US dollar has paused a bit in its uptrend. But inflation remains high (though likely peaking) and…
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Large vs Small Caps: Fundamentals vs Risk

4 August 2022 One of the asset allocation decisions we research is whether to favor large-caps or small-caps within an equity portfolio. Currently, we see a stark divergence in the broad categories of indicators: the fundamentals of earnings estimates and…
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Fed concerns easing despite recent big rate hikes

28 July 2022 Yesterday’s decision by the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 75 basis points for a second consecutive time was historic, as it marks the most aggressive back-to-back rate hikes (150 basis points in less than two months)…
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