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A key topic within the broader inflation debate is the influence of the biggest single component of the CPI: shelter. At about 33% of the current CPI weight, shelter (housing/rent) costs are clearly important,...
The focus of the inflation headlines, and most of the comments from Fed officials, has been on the year-on-year reported inflation rate of the CPI (or PCE). However, the extremely volatile macro environment has...
UK stocks have been outperforming the global market recently, and our indicators remain supportive, particularly if value and commodity stocks remain in favor. After lagging for much of the last decade, UK stocks have been...
A question we have heard several times from clients has been: when will equity analysts get as bearish as investors have been recently? Well, analysts may be getting closer to that point now, particularly...
The markets have remained focused on the Fed (and occasionally the Bank of England), and the Fed has kept its focus on the trailing reported inflation data (CPI, PCE, etc.) and on the labor...
Short-term movements in stocks, bonds, and currencies continue to be driven primarily by changes in investor perceptions about the Fed’s likely course of action over the next 6-12 months. In response to client questions,...