Global Portfolio Strategy Research
8 May 2023 “Objects in the mirror are not as bad as you thought they were” After several sub-par quarters and a period of aggressive estimate cuts, Q1 earnings reports have broadly beaten the reduced earnings forecasts. This has triggered…
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15 April 2023 We recently launched a new report designed to guide our institutional clients during earnings seasons. It is based around an “Earnings Screen Score” ranking methodology that draws on selected inputs from our long-standing MAER stock database to…
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15 January 2023 Some of the common questions among fund managers who are looking at Mill Street’s stock selection and asset allocation tools are on the topic of whether using analyst estimate revisions metrics for stock return forecasting is useful:…
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31 October 2022 A question we have heard several times from clients has been: when will equity analysts get as bearish as investors have been recently? Well, analysts may be getting closer to that point now, particularly for the large-cap…
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31 August 2022 China’s stock market (based on the MSCI China Index, which includes local Chinese listings and listings in Hong Kong) has lagged badly, whether compared to rest of the Emerging Market universe or to the developed market universe….
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20 July 2022 Tracking analyst earnings estimate revisions activity (i.e., are estimates rising or falling, and by how much?) is a key feature of our research. With earnings season underway, we can check in on how revisions activity looks across…
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22 June 2022 After nearly a decade of US equities mostly outperforming those in Europe, our indicators are finally more decisively aligned in favor of Europe now. Fundamental momentum has shifted to Europe now All of the indicators in the…
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19 May 2022 The level and growth rate of corporate earnings remain reasonably good – earnings are at record highs, and are expected to grow about 10% this year and next. However, analysts are no longer revising their earnings forecasts…
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14 April 2022 As Q1 earnings season gets under way, below we review the current consensus estimates for the US (S&P 500) and Europe (Stoxx 600). U.S. The table below shows the current bottom-up consensus estimates for the S&P 500…
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31 March 2022 Our indicators of analyst earnings estimates revisions in the US highlight a key theme: revisions for large-cap (and mid-cap) stocks have held up much better recently than those of small-cap stocks. While the proportion of analysts raising…
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