Soft side of Tech is still the place to be

Sector and industry work is a key part of the Mill Street institutional product suite, and the topic of which sectors are in or out of favor comes up frequently in my media appearances. So this post is an example of some of the sector/industry work I do, and updates a much earlier post on […]

Our anchor for the equity risk outlook

Like many market strategists, the first question I tend to get is something like “What do you think about the market? Going up or down?” Whether you are a professional investor tasked with navigating markets every day (most Mill Street clients), or an individual thinking about your own portfolio allocations, my first advice before giving […]

2024 Outlook

After a much-better-than-expected 2023, the outlook going into 2024 remains favorable, but slightly less so than this time a year ago, and for somewhat different reasons. As 2023 winds down, we see that for US investors at least, the economy (growth and inflation), corporate earnings, and the stock market did far better than most investors, […]

Will the Fed take the “Win”?

The Mill Street blog has been quiet for a while, but will be more active now that the new website is up and running as we head into 2024, and updates will be emailed to those who request it. In response to the recent market moves and headlines, I address one of the frequent questions […]

Mill Street Research MAER Stock Ranking Model: Do You See What IC?

A few months ago, I wrote a blog post giving a brief history of the development of Mill Street’s MAER stock selection model and comparing the in-sample and out-of-sample test results now that it has been just over 10 years since the current model was originally launched.

The key metric I showed was the Information Coefficient (IC), which is the correlation between the decile ranks of the stocks and the decile rank of their subsequent 1-month returns (it can be done on other return horizons as well). 

Analyst activity is turning sharply higher after strong Q1 reports

8 May 2023 “Objects in the mirror are not as bad as you thought they were” After several sub-par quarters and a period of aggressive estimate cuts, Q1 earnings reports have broadly beaten the reduced earnings forecasts. This has triggered not just higher stock prices but a broad and rapid upturn in the pattern of […]

Inflation continues to decelerate rapidly

24 April 2023 Following the latest CPI and PPI data, it seems even more clear that inflation mostly peaked around June/July last year and has been easing since, particularly in the last six months. This note follows up on the comments I made back in December, highlighting the influence of shelter costs and the Fed’s […]

New Earnings Season Screens report offers guidance during reporting season

15 April 2023 We recently launched a new report designed to guide our institutional clients during earnings seasons. It is based around an “Earnings Screen Score” ranking methodology that draws on selected inputs from our long-standing MAER stock database to identify companies which have strong near-term fundamental momentum going into an earnings report. Our research […]

The MAER stock ranking model: 10 years of out of sample history

28 February 2023 A bit of history Mill Street Research was founded around this time seven years ago, and the MAER stock selection model has been the anchor for Mill Street’s “bottom up” quantitative stock selection analysis since then. The MAER name is an acronym for the product’s original name, the Monitor of Analysts Earnings […]

Do Analyst Estimate Revisions (Still) Help Forecast Relative Stock Returns?

15 January 2023 Some of the common questions among fund managers who are looking at Mill Street’s stock selection and asset allocation tools are on the topic of whether using analyst estimate revisions metrics for stock return forecasting is useful: “Do analyst estimates really matter for stocks nowadays? “ “Aren’t equity analysts always conflicted, and […]