5 May 2022 Yesterday’s Fed policy announcement was certainly the focus of attention, and monetary policy has been driving headlines and market action for much of the year. However, our view is that fiscal policy is likely the bigger policy…
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21 April 2022 Inflation remains a big topic among investors, and the charts below clearly show some of the reasons why, but there are also reasons to suspect inflation pressure could ease later this year. Inflation is high . ….
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26 January 2022 Equities, and asset prices in general, have seen a return of volatility during January, following over a year of very subdued volatility and strong returns. Why, especially in a historically favorable seasonal period? In our view, markets…
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23 September 2021 The primary news from the Fed meeting yesterday was to clarify the likely timing of reducing and then ending the current QE (quantitative easing, or bond buying) program. Fed Chair Powell indicated that (barring any big surprises)…
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3 June 2021 While we have commented on the strength in US earnings estimate revisions activity recently, the latest readings warrant additional comment. Our data now show a new record (20-year+) high in the net proportion of analysts raising earnings…
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The news of Joe Biden winning the US presidency in November has now been joined by news that the US Senate will very likely be under the most narrow control of the Democratic party, along with a narrow majority in…
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As we discussed in an earlier blog post (and in our client research), much depends on the path of monetary and fiscal policy, particularly the fiscal stimulus programs put in place in response to the COVID-19 crisis in March and…
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*with apologies to Irwin M. Fletcher Much has been made about the divergence between the path of the US (and global) economy and that of the stock and corporate bond markets. Even while economic and earnings growth is historically weak…
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