16 December 2022 A key topic within the broader inflation debate is the influence of the biggest single component of the CPI: shelter. At about 33% of the current CPI weight, shelter (housing/rent) costs are clearly important, but measuring them…
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23 November 2022 The focus of the inflation headlines, and most of the comments from Fed officials, has been on the year-on-year reported inflation rate of the CPI (or PCE). However, the extremely volatile macro environment has produced far more…
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20 October 2022 The markets have remained focused on the Fed (and occasionally the Bank of England), and the Fed has kept its focus on the trailing reported inflation data (CPI, PCE, etc.) and on the labor market data (job…
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6 October 2022 Short-term movements in stocks, bonds, and currencies continue to be driven primarily by changes in investor perceptions about the Fed’s likely course of action over the next 6-12 months. In response to client questions, the following are…
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28 September 2022 The August CPI report released earlier this month was significantly worse than expected, and data since then has not changed the broader view of inflation for the Fed. Along with continued hawkish public commentary from Fed officials,…
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17 August 2022 The stock market has rallied sharply since mid-July, while long-term bond yields have been stable to lower. Even the mighty US dollar has paused a bit in its uptrend. But inflation remains high (though likely peaking) and…
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12 July 2022 Markets remain volatile, but the narrative driving the volatility has been shifting recently, a topic we have written about and discussed with clients recently. For much of the year, the concern was that the economy was “too…
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16 June 2022 Last month we commented that while the CPI readings remain very high, there are signs of moderation in commodity prices. With commodity prices remaining center stage as a macro driver, we continue to closely watch the various…
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12 May 2022 The latest CPI report yesterday showed prices in April still rising at a worrisome rate, led by recovery in service-related spending like airline fares. The monthly increases in the headline CPI and the core (excluding food and…
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21 April 2022 Inflation remains a big topic among investors, and the charts below clearly show some of the reasons why, but there are also reasons to suspect inflation pressure could ease later this year. Inflation is high . ….
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