Tag Archive: inflation

Inflation in goods is already over

23 November 2022 The focus of the inflation headlines, and most of the comments from Fed officials, has been on the year-on-year reported inflation rate of the CPI (or PCE). However, the extremely volatile macro environment has produced far more…
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Watching the Fed watching the data

20 October 2022 The markets have remained focused on the Fed (and occasionally the Bank of England), and the Fed has kept its focus on the trailing reported inflation data (CPI, PCE, etc.) and on the labor market data (job…
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All eyes still on the Fed

6 October 2022 Short-term movements in stocks, bonds, and currencies continue to be driven primarily by changes in investor perceptions about the Fed’s likely course of action over the next 6-12 months. In response to client questions, the following are…
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Are we fighting the Fed now?

17 August 2022 The stock market has rallied sharply since mid-July, while long-term bond yields have been stable to lower. Even the mighty US dollar has paused a bit in its uptrend. But inflation remains high (though likely peaking) and…
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Is the Fed closer to its goals than we think?

12 July 2022 Markets remain volatile, but the narrative driving the volatility has been shifting recently, a topic we have written about and discussed with clients recently. For much of the year, the concern was that the economy was “too…
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Commodity prices diverging: energy vs the rest

16 June 2022 Last month we commented that while the CPI readings remain very high, there are signs of moderation in commodity prices. With commodity prices remaining center stage as a macro driver, we continue to closely watch the various…
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CPI remains high, but commodity prices stabilizing

12 May 2022 The latest CPI report yesterday showed prices in April still rising at a worrisome rate, led by recovery in service-related spending like airline fares. The monthly increases in the headline CPI and the core (excluding food and…
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Bond market in turmoil as stocks outperform

7 April 2022 While all markets have been volatile recently, the normally “safe” Treasury bond market has been especially volatile, and is giving mixed signals. This means that even in a generally “risk off” backdrop, the normally riskier stock market…
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