Tag Archive: inflation

Commodity prices diverging: energy vs the rest

16 June 2022 Last month we commented that while the CPI readings remain very high, there are signs of moderation in commodity prices. With commodity prices remaining center stage as a macro driver, we continue to closely watch the various…
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CPI remains high, but commodity prices stabilizing

12 May 2022 The latest CPI report yesterday showed prices in April still rising at a worrisome rate, led by recovery in service-related spending like airline fares. The monthly increases in the headline CPI and the core (excluding food and…
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Bond market in turmoil as stocks outperform

7 April 2022 While all markets have been volatile recently, the normally “safe” Treasury bond market has been especially volatile, and is giving mixed signals. This means that even in a generally “risk off” backdrop, the normally riskier stock market…
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Why are you not more bearish?

24 March 2022 Client Question: There is a possible world war going on along with a seemingly never-ending pandemic, inflation is at multi-decade highs, the Fed and other central banks are tightening monetary policy, and the world may lose access…
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Inflation trend is still low

9 June 2021 One of the biggest topics among investors recently has been inflation, particularly after the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports (reflecting April data) that showed big monthly jumps in headline inflation: 0.8%…
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Labor market improving but still shows plenty of slack

In the longer-run, a key measure of inflation pressure is the amount of labor market slack (unemployed or underemployed people), which heavily influences the ability of workers to demand higher wages. The standard reported unemployment rate data (i.e., the U-3…
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